President Abdelmadjid Tebboune has rejected an International Monetary Fund projection showing a steep decline in Algeria’s foreign exchange reserves by 2031, arguing that the country’s economic strategy is focused on expanding non-hydrocarbon revenues and reducing reliance on imports.
Speaking during his periodic meeting with national media, excerpts of which were broadcast on Saturday, October 3, Tebboune challenged the IMF forecast and framed the effort to diversify Algeria’s sources of income as a matter of economic sovereignty.
“We are working to increase our non-hydrocarbon revenues. It is not a question of foreign currency. It is a question of sovereignty,” Tebboune said, according to TSA Algérie.
IMF Forecast Points to Lower Algeria Foreign Exchange Reserves
According to figures cited by TSA from an IMF report published on September 21, Algeria’s foreign exchange reserves are projected to fall from $46.5 billion in 2026 to $19.8 billion by 2031.
TSA reported that Algeria’s reserves were estimated at $69 billion in 2024 and $51 billion in 2025. Tebboune had previously told both chambers of Parliament that the country’s external assets were at an “acceptable level,” covering nearly a year and a half of imports.
The publication said the IMF’s projections take into account import trends and forecasts for oil prices. Algeria’s foreign-currency earnings remain heavily linked to oil and gas exports, making hydrocarbon prices an important factor in the outlook for reserves.
Tebboune, however, disputed the forecast and pointed to the government’s drive to expand income outside the hydrocarbon sector.
Non-Hydrocarbon Exports and Import Substitution
TSA reported that Algeria’s non-hydrocarbon exports exceeded $6 billion in 2022, after having struggled to surpass $1 billion in earlier years. The publication said forecasts for 2026 put the figure at $7.8 billion.
The source also pointed to several large mining and industrial projects that could contribute to future export activity, including the Gara Djebilet iron-ore project, phosphate development in Tébessa, and zinc and lead projects in Béjaïa.
Agricultural investment forms another part of the diversification strategy described by TSA. The publication cited the Baladna project in Adrar and a cereal project with Italian company BF in Timimoun.
Algeria is targeting medium-term cereal production of 9 million tonnes, according to the source. Greater domestic production could reduce import requirements, which TSA argues would also help preserve foreign exchange even when projects do not directly generate export revenue.
The Baladna project is one example highlighted in the report. TSA said the planned farm will have 270,000 cows and supply a facility expected to produce 193,000 tonnes of milk powder. Algeria currently spends about $600 million annually on imported milk powder, according to the publication.
The eventual effect of these projects on Algeria’s reserves will depend on their implementation, production and ability either to generate exports or replace imports. Tebboune’s position is that diversification should alter the trajectory anticipated in the IMF forecast, while the Fund’s projection cited by TSA points to a substantial decline in reserves through 2031.
Sami B. is the founder and editor of Algeria News Gate, an independent English-language platform covering Algeria’s political, economic, and business developments. Based in Europe, he reports on official announcements, economic trends, and international relations involving Algeria.